Russia Invades Ukraine; What Should be Next for the USA, NATO, EU, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, the Eastern Orthodox Church, and the Holy See (Catholic Church)

USA and NATO: The USA and NATO need to continue to protect Western Ukraine and Lviv from destruction. Lviv is the best hope for Ukrainian independence right now, as it is the biggest city that is at the highest level of Ukrainian patriotic fervor there is, and is home to many Western facing institutions, most notably, the Ukrainian Catholics. Lviv was one of the areas that sparked the “Rukh” Movement that brought independence to Ukraine. Furthermore, the USA and NATO need to build up protection in Norway, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, in addition to trying to protect Finland covertly as not to raise tensions. Also, the USA and NATO need to have covert operations across more Baltic areas like Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, as well as weaker defended islands like Gotland (Sweden) and the Åland Islands (Finland). If the USA and NATO surround Kallinigrad, Russia’s semi-exclave on the Baltic Sea, then Russia may feel they need to push out putting many areas at risk. There needs to be more weapons handed out on some of these islands, especially the fiercely independent Åland Islanders who could prove a menace to Russia’s ambitions if this happened. The USA and NATO need to exercise the full force of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in Estonia to fight off cyber attacks from Russia and need to go on offensive cyber attacks on Russia too, but beware of a trap. The USA and NATO need to be ready to take down Russian satellites or fight off against them enough to lesen Russia’s nuclear capabilities, while also protecting their own satellites. The US Space Force could prove massive for this. The USA and NATO also need to covertly enter Transnistria and Moldova to make sure the Russians are not planning huge attacks from there. Furthermore, while the Russians are focused on Ukraine, the USA and NATO should enter into Belarus covertly, and try to start the Belarusian patriotic movements there, by playing into their fears that Russia sees them as Russian and not separate as well, as evident with Ukraine. The USA and NATO need to keep supplying Ukraine with more weapons, and need to supply Belarusian rebels with weapons as well. The USA does not need to fight directly with Russia, rather just needs to indirectly fight with them. Also, the USA and NATO need to push Bulgaria closer to Greece, and keep Romania fiercely independent, to fight attempts to make these lands Russian led again. Greece may be key in getting most of Eastern Europe on the USA’s side.

The EU: The EU needs to assure their members in the East, or Central Europe as they like to be called, the Visegrád Group that they will respect their internal sovereignty. The EU often appears as too progressive and anti-Christian, and President Putin is banking on the European right wing and conservatives to be part of a Fifth Column for him by sparking fears of an anti-Christian Europe. The Visegrád Group of Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, and Hungary, are very Christian and Conservative, at least three of those countries are anyway. They provide one of the bulwarks of the EU at this point, and they need reassurances that their sovereignty will be respected by the EU, because culturally at this point, Moscow may seem closer than Brussels for some of the leaders of these nations. The truth is this is not true, but perception is everything. Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Greece will also be happy with this, as will Italy and many conservatives in the EU. So, it will appease many and make the EU stronger, as they will recognize the EU respects sovereignty, while the Russian Federation, and Russian Alliance does not, as apparent with Belarus, Ukraine, and history.

Ukraine: Ukraine needs to keep the belief, keep handing out weapons, and needs to keep fighting. Russia is not likely to drop an atomic bomb on a place they want to conquer because they need it for Russian pride. Thus, the advantage goes to Ukraine, like in risk. Ukraine is the power in Ukraine. If they outlast Russia, they will win, and they can. In fact, this can be a war that ends President Putin’s reign, and brings in a more behaving Russian leader. It could also bring about the opposite. The point is though, if Ukraine keeps supplying their citizens with weapons to fight, then Ukraine will probably win eventually, but only if they do not give up. Furthermore, Ukraine needs to work with its allies to secure Western Ukraine. By keeping Western Ukraine, this creates a de facto sovereign area of Ukraine led by Ukrainians, and keeps the belief and morale alive. Ukraine also needs to employ their Estonian friends to keep helping them out with countering cyber attacks from Russia. While independent Ukrainian contractors could help out with cyber sabotage on Russia, it is probably best to let NATO do this, and for Ukraine to just be on the defense for cyber attacks, as well as the reboots. In the end, if this gets resolved, Ukraine needs to go back to a proper-democracy where all people including those with Russian interests are respected, even if a Russian-aligned leader gets elected, or Ukraine needs to just join NATO! If Russia is weak in the end, Ukraine should just join NATO, but also revamp a proper democracy again with no coups that brought about this fervor to revolt on the side of Russia like what happened in 2014. Yes, Crimea has historically been more Russian and Russian aligned, but the other areas of Ukraine have not. This is a rather new development.

Russia: Russia needs to keep applying pressure. At this point, there is no going back, but eventually, including in the very near future, there may be a stopping point where they sort of can. If Western Ukraine is secured, then most likely, the Ukraine War will turn into the Korean War where there will be a split down the middle, which still favors Russia. Russia would be smart to accept this, as the West has become weak with too many conveniences to fight. But, Russia should really be using Moldova, Belarus, especially Transnistria, the Donestk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, and Crimea, as places to enter Ukraine. It appears they are currently using all of those. If Russia desires Kiev, they may have to settle for a split city too, like in Nicosia in Cyprus, or Berlin when the iron curtain was still up. But, by doing this, Russia will most likely lose the propaganda war, and same with in a split Ukraine. Why? Because Western Ukraine and West Kyiv will be so much nicer most likely, as many Ukrainian refugees will settle in the West and donate to businesses and infrastructure projects in Western Ukraine and Kyiv, that will make it hard for a sanctioned Russia to compete. However, if Kyiv is not split, it may provide enough distance and excuses to pretend that East Ukraine is poor and West Ukraine is rich and that is why Russia’s area is not doing as well. But, this will also sort of make this war useless symbolically as Kiev is the target for Russia. Ironically, the industry is actually in East Ukraine, much like it was in West Germany for the USA. Russians can also covertly plant agents around the West to know the West’s plans, especially at the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in Estonia, as well as other cyber attack plans. The Russians can also infiltrate weapons handouts and other things in Ukraine to stay one step ahead and more powerful too. Russians can hide within Ukraine in plain sight and pretend they are Ukrainian. Russia should also extend their cyber attacks to the USA and major powers in the EU, while expanding their pro-Christian propaganda and pro-European propaganda (not EU, but Europe) in the Visegrád Group and elsewhere. But, they do not need to do warfare attacks against these groups. Also, if Russia does take over formerly take over Ukraine enough to put in a government, they need to make Ukraine de jure sovereign so they can keep an extra vote in the UN.

Belarus: Belarusian rebels or people that want a new government simply just want a free-democratic country for Belaus. But to do this, they need support and to actually do it. Now may be the perfect time for Belarusians to fight for their freedom while their leaders are distracted with Ukraine and might even be helping people take over them. For Belarus’s dictatorial style government, they should side with Russia and send minimal resources but lots of intelligence and other work to Russia. In the meantime, Belarus’s leaders need to watch for their own citizens or those of others. But back to the Belarusian citizens, they need to use their Belarusian Greek Catholic Church, Catholic Church, and Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and Orthodox Church in Ukraine connections to disseminate information out and in. They should push for an autocephalous church in Belarus, and see if their leaders agree, as they still want Belarus to Belarusian, even if deeply tied to Russia. Currently, only the Catholic options seem the most viable, and can reach Poland very fast.

Eastern Orthodox Church: The Eastern Orthodox Church needs to do its best to support the Ukrainian Orthodox autocephalous church. Why? Because the Russian Orthodox Church has already broken away in a schism, and probably will not mind too much more if the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople sides with the Ukrainian autocephalous church, as it already has. So, the only major harm to the Eastern Orthodox Church is to its image as a direct successor to the Apostles and thus Jesus’s Church, and to its many Slavic and Eastern European ethnic groups. First off, the right thing to do would be to criticize Russia for their invasion and to continue to promote the autocephalous Orthodox Church in Ukraine. If the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople is truly first among equals, it needs to act like it! Constantinople unrightfully had Kyiv taken by Moscow’s Patriarchate anyway, so Constantinople just needs to continue to fight this with historical facts, and present-day precedence. Next, they need to do this because if they do not, they risk losing their Eastern Europeans of other Ethnic Groups to the Catholic Church, especially if the Holy See sides with Ukraine! Why? Because the Russians are a threat to many people’s sovereignty, and many have tense relations with Russia on this issue of Russian revanchism, and thus many are part of NATO to stop Russian advancements, even if Russia now is a “Christian nation”. The belief that Ukrainians are really just Russians is offense to North Macedonians, Moldovans, Montenegrins, Estonians, Latvians, Ruthenians, and Belarusians especially who have to go through portrayals of not being real ethnic groups, with relations to Greeks, Bulgarians, and Albanians, Romanians, Serbians, Russians, Russians, Russians, and Russians respectively. The only people who would be happy with Constantinople siding with Moscow, besides Russia itself, would be Serbia. But, probably not. Even though Serbia is a big fan of Russia, they too worry about being usurped by bigger powers. They may see Russia’s attempt to retake Kiev like their attempts to retake Kosovo and Metohija and Republika Srspka, and they may see the Russian Orthodox Church’s attempt to end any movement of Ukrainian Orthodox autocephalousy like their attempts to stop Montenegrin autocephalousy, but overall, a lot of them will probably just see this as unneeded like many Russians do. Russia does not really appear in need to do this. Plus, Serbia is continually looking West. They may join the EU, and are starting to use more Latin Script. Serbia can use Greece as their new Russia, in other words, Greece can be their new Orthodox brothers/sisters. They already see Greece this way, but because Russia has the extra Slavic part, it makes Serbia and Russia closer. Serbia could turn the corner and become like Ukraine or others have been to Russia. Friendly, but on opposing sides, like the former Yugoslavia was a lot.

Holy See: The Holy See needs to support the Ukrainian Catholics while the Catholic charities should help both sides to make people safe and healthy. But, covertly, the Holy See should be supporting Ukrainian Catholics and thus, Ukraine in their fight against Russia. Overtly, the Holy See needs to condemn this act of war and invasion, and state how they wish to see a separate Ukraine and Russia. One reason is the same as the Eastern Orthodox Church. The Catholic Church is Jesus’s Church led by Apostolic Succession, so doing the right thing is very important! Another reason is because Ukraine is heavily Catholic in many regions and thus the Holy See needs to preserve their Catholic freedoms which will be best preserved, at this time, and unless something changes, in Ukraine. Lastly, by siding with Ukraine against the Russian aggressor, the Holy See could probably get an uptick in Greek Catholics and could extend to more regions of the world. The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople is weak, and this may persuade them to finally sign with the Bishop of Rome so that the Pope becomes first among equals again. Either way, it is a win for supporting Ukraine in every way, but one, and that is an attack on the Russian Greek Catholic Church and Catholics in Russia as a retaliation. Thus, that is why the operations should be clandestine. The public calls need to be for peace and not politics. Mostly, the Holy See needs to use their Catholic connections all over to disseminate intelligence in and out of Ukraine and Belarus.

Each group has a busy few weeks. It will be a difficult battle that should have never been fought.

***** edit: Some interesting points brought up in comments: NATO needs to use satellite capabilities to fight against nuclear capability of Russia. And, Russia needs to preserve the de jure sovereignty of Ukraine if they take them over to keep an extra vote in the UN.

If anyone wants to add or disagree, definitely reply in the comments.

Published by CK 22

I like history, politics, foreign diplomacy, sports, and more. Basically, the most popular things, plus also geography.

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